The Atlanta Falcons have won two of their last three and have a chance to increase their lead in the NFC South as they travel to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans as 2.5-point road favorites according to this week’s NFL odds.
The Titans were already one of the lowest-scoring offenses under Ryan Tannehill, and now will be throwing out Will Levis and Malik Willis to face one of the best defenses in football. Even out of the bye, it’s tough to be optimistic about the Tennessee offense in the Week 8 odds.
Here are my free NFL picks for Falcons vs. Titans on October 29.
Falcons vs Titans odds
Falcons vs Titans predictions
Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel told reporters on Tuesday that Ryan Tannehill will not practice and is looking very doubtful for Sunday despite an extra week off. That has led Vrabel to say that rookie quarterback Will Levis will start and lead the No. 25 scoring offense on Sunday.
The HC also stated both Levis and Malik Willis will get snaps vs. this Top-5 Atlanta Falcons defense.
Sources: The #Titans are preparing rookie QB Will Levis to start on Sunday, as the 2nd rounder should make his NFL debut. With Ryan Tannehill (ankle) likely out, coach Mike Vrabel said both Levis and Malik Willis would play. But Levis is expected to be the primary QB. pic.twitter.com/aEb6MEXpiu
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 25, 2023
Willis got some work in Week 6 when Tannehill went down, completing just four passes. He was sacked four times on nine dropbacks and that came against a Baltimore team that generates pressure at a low rate.
The Falcons enter Week 8 ranked fourth in pressure%, third in QB knockdown%, and second in hurry%. That’s a tough task for a green quarterback who also saw just one game of action during the preseason.
If the Titans go run heavy this weekend, it’s also not going to end well. The Falcons own the league’s No. 1 rush defense in both EPA/rush and success rate. They have also allowed just one rushing touchdown on the season, which is the fewest in football.
Either way you look at it, this Tennessee offense is in trouble. It was the second-slowest offense in a neutral context pace of play with Tannehill under center and scored in the red zone at the second-worst rate. Willis nor Levis is going to change the output of this offense and they’re worth betting against this week with a team total of 17.5.
My best bet: Titans Team Total Under 17.5 (-125 at Caesars)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Falcons vs Titans same-game parlay
Titans TT Under 16.5Spears Under 26.5 Rushing YardsRidder Under 216.5 Passing Yards
+475 at bet365
bet365 doesn’t have a 17.5-point team total market and this total has gone south with the news of Levis and the market reacting, but 16.5 is still good here vs. this defense and how slow this Titans’ offense is projected to play.
There have been some Derrick Henry trade rumors but it’s tough to assume he will be shipped off late in the week. Tyjae Spears has been getting a bigger load of late but this is the No. 1 rushing defense in football. He is averaging just over five carries per game and THE BLITZ sees his Under at this number as a +EV play. Ridder lit up a terrible Tampa Bay secondary with 10 yards per pass and still only had 250 yards. With Bijan Robinson likely healthier, Atlanta could go heavier on the run game vs. a Titans’ defense that isn’t as stout vs. the run as it was last year at 4.4 yards per carry over its last three games (23rd).
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Falcons vs Titans spread and Over/Under analysis
The Falcons are one of the best defenses in football and face a slow Tennessee offense that Arthur Smith is very familiar with. The “strength” of the Titans has been on the ground but a declining Derrick Henry will struggle vs. the No. 1 rush defense in football.
If Tennessee consistently leaves third-and-longs for Levis, this Atlanta pass rush could have a field day. The Titans allowed the sixth-most sacks a year ago and Tannehill and Willis have been sacked a combined 23 times this season through six games.
The Falcons have an elite pass rush and don’t blitz so Levis will have to make quick decisions with several defenders awaiting in coverage. It’s a tough setup for the rookie and a great overall matchup for the Atlanta defense.
This game was listed as a near pick’em on the look-ahead line but has hit as high as Atlanta -3. The Atlanta offense is keeping this overall total down and money on the Under has moved this total from 38 to 36 — making it the third-lowest total of the season.
The Falcons managed 9.5 yards per pass last week vs. the Buccaneers but went 1-for-5 in the red zone. The Titans have been stout near the goal line and sit third in red-zone TD% at 30%. This might be a good game to hit Over 3.5 field goals at +155.
I also think if bettors are holding Atlanta -2.5 tickets come Sunday, they’ll be sitting with some solid CLV.
